Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
