Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
